2025 Fantasy Football Power Rankings Analysis
Week 12 Update - Generated November 27, 2025 at 05:26 AM
A Note on ESPN's "Projections" (Read This First)
Before we dive into the numbers, let's address the elephant in the room: ESPN's projection system is fundamentally broken.
Here's what ESPN does: They project points for your entire starting lineup, including players who are on BYE weeks. That's right - if Jonathan Taylor is on BYE and will score exactly zero points this week, ESPN still includes his 19-point projection in your team's total. This isn't a minor oversight; it's a fundamental failure to understand how fantasy football works.
The result? ESPN's "projected points" are systematically inflated garbage that will mislead you into thinking your team is performing better than it actually will. Every single week, across every single team, their projections include phantom points from players who literally cannot play.
What We Do Instead
This analysis applies actual intelligence to the problem:
| Projection Type | What It Means |
|---|---|
| ESPN Raw | ESPN's projection (includes BYE players who will score 0 - useless) |
| Corrected Baseline | ESPN Raw minus unavailable players (the realistic floor) |
| Optimized | Corrected + your best bench replacements (what a smart manager achieves) |
| Monte Carlo Input | 60% Optimized + 40% Historical PPG (our simulation uses this) |
The key insight: Our "Optimized" projection is always greater than or equal to the Corrected Baseline, because making smart lineup decisions always helps. But it's often less than ESPN's Raw projection - not because optimization hurts you, but because ESPN's number was bullshit to begin with.
When you see a matchup breakdown showing ESPN Raw at 103 but Optimized at 88, don't panic. The 88 is what you'll actually score. The 103 was a fantasy (pun intended) that included your BYE week player's imaginary contribution.
This analysis corrects for ESPN's incompetence so you can make informed decisions. You're welcome.
Season Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weeks Played | 12 |
| Games Remaining | 3 |
| Playoff Teams | 4 |
| Tiebreaker | Points For (Total Season Points) |
| Current Leader | MP (9-3) |
| Highest Scorer | MP (115.85 PPG) |
| Luckiest Team | GEMP (+1.55 WAX) |
| Unluckiest Team | PATS (-2.18 WAX) |
Understanding the Metrics
Power Score (The Overall Ranking)
Power Score = (Real Wins × 2) + (Top6 Wins) + (MVP-W)
This is our ultimate measure of team quality. It heavily weights actual matchup wins (multiplied by 2) because winning is what matters most. But it also rewards teams that consistently score in the top half (Top6 Wins) and would beat multiple opponents each week (MVP-W).
MVP-W (Minimized Variance Potential Wins)
Your theoretical win rate if you played all teams in the league every single week. High scorers have high MVP-W; low scorers don't.
WAX (Wins Above Expectation)
WAX = Real Wins - MVP-W
- Positive WAX = Lucky (winning more than scoring deserves)
- Negative WAX = Unlucky (losing despite good scoring)
- WAX near 0 = Getting exactly what you deserve
Overall Power Rankings
Power Score Breakdown
Power Score Evolution Over Time
Monte Carlo Simulation Methodology
How We Predict the Future
Our playoff predictions use a hybrid Monte Carlo simulation that blends two data sources:
-
ESPN's Official Projections (60% weight) - ESPN's projected points for each team's upcoming matchups, factoring in their algorithms for player projections, matchups, and expected performance.
-
Historical Performance (40% weight) - Each team's season-long PPG (points per game) and scoring variance, capturing their established scoring patterns.
The Blending Formula
For each simulated game:
Expected Score = (0.6 × ESPN Projected Points) + (0.4 × Historical PPG)
Simulated Score = Random draw from Normal(Expected Score, Adjusted Variance)
Roster Health Adjustment
Teams with injured players have increased scoring variance in the simulation. This reflects the uncertainty when backup players replace starters:
- Healthy roster (100%) → Standard variance
- Injured starters → Variance increased by up to 50%
What We Track
For each of the 10,000 simulations, we record:
1. Final Win Total - How many wins each team ends with
2. Final Points For - Total season points (the tiebreaker for playoff seeding)
3. Final Standing - Where each team finishes in the standings
Why Points For Matters (Hint: $200)
Points For isn't just a tiebreaker - it's worth cold, hard cash. The highest Points For at the end of the regular season wins $200 (half of all buy-ins).
This means even if you miss the playoffs, you can still take home a significant payout by outscoring everyone else across the season. Our simulation tracks the full distribution of projected Points For, so you can see your odds of claiming that prize.
Additionally, Points For is the tiebreaker for playoff seeding. Two teams with identical records? The one with more total points gets the higher seed. This is critical for teams battling for the 4th playoff spot.
What "#1 Seed %" Means
The #1 Seed % column shows your probability of finishing as the regular season champion - the top seed heading into playoffs. This is based on finishing with the best record (and Points For as tiebreaker). This is NOT the probability of winning the playoff tournament.
Assumptions & Limitations
- ESPN projections are only as good as their source data (projected lineups, player health)
- Past scoring patterns may not continue (trades, injuries, bye weeks)
- Each game is simulated independently (no momentum modeling)
- We use Points For as the tiebreaker (matching your league settings)
Monte Carlo Projection Summary
Left: Win projections showing current wins plus expected gains. Right: Points For projections, critical for tiebreaker scenarios.
Playoff Predictions
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations blending ESPN projections with historical data.
| Team | Record | Playoff % | Most Likely Wins | Projected PF | Proj. Standing | #1 Seed % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP | 9-3 | 99.2% | 11 | 1699 | #1.3 | 80.7% |
| ZSF | 7-5 | 76.2% | 9 | 1683 | #3.3 | 8.1% |
| sgf | 8-4 | 73.5% | 9 | 1630 | #3.4 | 7.0% |
| KIRK | 7-5 | 60.8% | 9 | 1600 | #4.2 | 1.2% |
| POO | 7-5 | 51.9% | 9 | 1557 | #4.3 | 1.9% |
| GV | 7-5 | 35.4% | 9 | 1547 | #4.9 | 1.1% |
| PATS | 5-7 | 1.8% | 7 | 1587 | #7.7 | 0.0% |
| GEMP | 6-6 | 1.3% | 7 | 1435 | #7.7 | 0.0% |
| KESS | 5-7 | 0.0% | 6 | 1411 | #8.9 | 0.0% |
| 3000 | 4-8 | 0.0% | 4 | 1309 | #11.4 | 0.0% |
| WOOD | 3-9 | 0.0% | 4 | 1310 | #11.4 | 0.0% |
| ROUX | 4-8 | 0.0% | 6 | 1415 | #9.4 | 0.0% |
Playoff Picture Analysis
Locked In: MP - ESPN projections and historical data both agree: these teams are playoff-bound.
Looking Good: POO, sgf, KIRK, ZSF - Strong position but not mathematically safe. The simulation likes their chances.
On the Bubble: GV - The tiebreaker (Points For) could make or break their season. Every point matters.
Long Shots: GEMP, KESS, 3000, WOOD, ROUX, PATS - The simulations found very few paths to the playoffs. Time to play spoiler.
Tiebreaker Watch: Points For Leaders
Since Points For is the tiebreaker, here's who's positioned best if records end up tied:
| Rank | Team | Current PF | Projected Final PF | Expected Addition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MP | 1390 | 1699 | +309 |
| 2 | ZSF | 1379 | 1683 | +304 |
| 3 | sgf | 1355 | 1630 | +275 |
| 4 | KIRK | 1312 | 1600 | +288 |
| 5 | PATS | 1299 | 1587 | +288 |
| 6 | POO | 1267 | 1557 | +291 |
Remaining Schedule (Weeks 13-15)
Win probabilities based on blended ESPN projections (60%) and historical data (40%).
Week 13
| Matchup | ESPN Projections | Historical PPG | Favorite | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KESS vs ROUX | 90.36 vs 87.26 | 96.6 vs 95.6 | KESS | 54% |
| MP vs GEMP | 102.95 vs 86.71 | 115.8 vs 97.9 | MP | 72% |
| KIRK vs WOOD | 106.66 vs 80.58 | 109.4 vs 88.4 | KIRK | 83% |
| sgf vs GV | 93.48 vs 98.71 | 112.9 vs 104.9 | sgf | 50% |
| ZSF vs PATS | 104.86 vs 107.11 | 114.9 vs 108.2 | ZSF | 51% |
| 3000 vs POO | 84.67 vs 109.55 | 91.7 vs 105.6 | POO | 79% |
Week 14
| Matchup | ESPN Projections | Historical PPG | Favorite | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROUX vs GEMP | 86.07 vs 84.27 | 95.6 vs 97.9 | ROUX | 50% |
| WOOD vs KESS | 72.81 vs 79.29 | 88.4 vs 96.6 | KESS | 62% |
| GV vs MP | 97.07 vs 92.97 | 104.9 vs 115.8 | MP | 53% |
| PATS vs KIRK | 68.26 vs 101.7 | 108.2 vs 109.4 | KIRK | 75% |
| POO vs sgf | 101.31 vs 50.72 | 105.6 vs 112.9 | POO | 81% |
| 3000 vs ZSF | 18.77 vs 90.86 | 91.7 vs 114.9 | ZSF | 95% |
Week 15
| Matchup | ESPN Projections | Historical PPG | Favorite | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WOOD vs ROUX | 82.32 vs 92.62 | 88.4 vs 95.6 | ROUX | 64% |
| GEMP vs GV | 79.78 vs 92.73 | 97.9 vs 104.9 | GV | 67% |
| KESS vs PATS | 82.95 vs 107.83 | 96.6 vs 108.2 | PATS | 76% |
| MP vs POO | 101.81 vs 101.24 | 115.8 vs 105.6 | MP | 55% |
| KIRK vs 3000 | 104.55 vs 88.57 | 109.4 vs 91.7 | KIRK | 78% |
| sgf vs ZSF | 99.61 vs 100.31 | 112.9 vs 114.9 | ZSF | 51% |
Roster Health Report
Current injury status affects simulation variance - injured rosters have more uncertainty.
| Team | Health % | Injured Starters | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| PATS | 88% | 0 | Moderate |
| GV | 88% | 0 | Moderate |
| sgf | 88% | 0 | Moderate |
| ROUX | 88% | 0 | Moderate |
| KESS | 88% | 0 | Moderate |
| GEMP | 88% | 0 | Moderate |
| 3000 | 100% | 0 | Minimal |
| WOOD | 100% | 0 | Minimal |
| POO | 100% | 0 | Minimal |
| MP | 100% | 0 | Minimal |
| ZSF | 100% | 0 | Minimal |
| KIRK | 100% | 0 | Minimal |
Team-by-Team Analysis
Each team's analysis includes win/points projections, roster health status, and playoff outlook.
#1 MP - Power Score: 35.36
Record: 9-3 | PPG: 115.85 | Total PF: 1390 | Top6: 9 | MVP-W: 8.36 | WAX: +0.64
Sitting atop the standings with a commanding 9-3 record, this team has earned the top spot through dominant performance. Their 115.85 PPG leads the league, which translates to an impressive 8.36 MVP-W and 9 top-6 weekly finishes. With a +0.64 WAX, they've caught a few breaks too - but at this level, you take what you can get.
Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 11 wins | Projected PF: 1699 | Playoff: 99.2% | #1 Seed: 80.7%
Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):
| Source | Projection | Notes |
|--------|------------|-------|
| ESPN Raw | 99.2 pts | ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters) |
| Optimized | 94.2 pts | ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs |
| Historical PPG | 115.8 pts | Season average through week 12 |
| Monte Carlo Input | 102.8 pts | 60% Optimized + 40% Historical |
The simulations are decisive: MP is playoff-bound with a healthy roster backing up the math.
Roster Health & Availability Report:
Fully healthy starting lineup.
BYE Week Players (3):
- Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND) - Week 13
- Texans D/ST (D/ST, HOU) - Week 13
- George Kittle (WR, SF) - Week 14
Lineup Optimization Moves:
- Week 13: Bench Jonathan Taylor (BYE) → Start Tony Pollard (+9.0 pts)
Total Optimization Gain: +9.0 projected points across 3 remaining weeks.
Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:
Week 13 vs GEMP:
| Projection Type | MP | GEMP |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 103.0 | 86.7 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 78.7 | 69.4 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 87.7 | 85.4 |
| Historical PPG | 115.8 | 97.9 |
| MC Blended | 98.9 | 90.4 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (71% win probability) | Spread: +8.6
Roster Decisions for Week 13:
- BYE: Jonathan Taylor (RB), Texans D/ST (D/ST)
- ACTION: Start Tony Pollard (+9.0 pts) for Jonathan Taylor (BYE)
Week 14 vs GV:
| Projection Type | MP | GV |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 93.0 | 97.1 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 93.0 | 91.5 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 93.0 | 91.5 |
| Historical PPG | 115.8 | 104.9 |
| MC Blended | 102.1 | 96.9 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (63% win probability) | Spread: +5.2
Roster Decisions for Week 14:
- BYE: George Kittle (WR)
Week 15 vs POO:
| Projection Type | MP | POO |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 101.8 | 101.2 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 101.8 | 101.2 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 101.8 | 101.2 |
| Historical PPG | 115.8 | 105.6 |
| MC Blended | 107.4 | 103.0 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (61% win probability) | Spread: +4.4
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Projected Season Totals (Optimized):
- Current PF: 1390
- Expected Additional PF: +308
- Projected Final PF: 1699
#2 sgf - Power Score: 31.82
Record: 8-4 | PPG: 112.91 | Total PF: 1355 | Top6: 8 | MVP-W: 7.82 | WAX: +0.18
Second place with 8-4, trailing the leader by 3.54 power points. Scoring 112.91 PPG with 8 top-6 finishes shows genuine quality.
Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 9 wins | Projected PF: 1630 | Playoff: 73.5% | #1 Seed: 7.0%
Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):
| Source | Projection | Notes |
|--------|------------|-------|
| ESPN Raw | 81.3 pts | ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters) |
| Optimized | 76.2 pts | ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs |
| Historical PPG | 112.9 pts | Season average through week 12 |
| Monte Carlo Input | 90.9 pts | 60% Optimized + 40% Historical |
Right on the knife's edge at 73%. ESPN projects enough points to stay competitive, but so does everyone else. Injuries to Chris Olave (QUESTIONABLE) add unpredictability to the projections.
Roster Health & Availability Report:
Key injuries: Chris Olave (RB, QUESTIONABLE). Bench depth: Joe Burrow (QB) available.
BYE Week Players (2):
- Stefon Diggs (RB, NE) - Week 13
- Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF) - Week 14
Injured Starters (1):
- Chris Olave (RB, QUESTIONABLE) ⭐: 12.7 pts proj, Questionable - may play with reduced workload
Monte Carlo Variance Impact: Roster uncertainty increased simulation variance by 12%, widening outcome distributions. This means higher upside but also higher downside risk.
Lineup Optimization Moves:
- Week 13: Bench Stefon Diggs (BYE) → Start Sam LaPorta (+0.0 pts)
- Week 14: Bench Christian McCaffrey (BYE) → Start Marvin Harrison Jr. (+11.1 pts)
Total Optimization Gain: +11.1 projected points across 3 remaining weeks.
Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:
Week 13 vs GV:
| Projection Type | sgf | GV |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 93.5 | 98.7 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 77.4 | 72.1 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 77.4 | 91.3 |
| Historical PPG | 112.9 | 104.9 |
| MC Blended | 91.6 | 96.8 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (37% win probability) | Spread: -5.2
Roster Decisions for Week 13:
- BYE: Stefon Diggs (RB)
- ACTION: Start Sam LaPorta (+0.0 pts) for Stefon Diggs (BYE)
Week 14 vs POO:
| Projection Type | sgf | POO |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 50.7 | 101.3 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 45.5 | 93.1 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 56.7 | 93.1 |
| Historical PPG | 112.9 | 105.6 |
| MC Blended | 79.2 | 98.1 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (12% win probability) | Spread: -19.0
Roster Decisions for Week 14:
- BYE: Christian McCaffrey (RB)
- ACTION: Start Marvin Harrison Jr. (+11.1 pts) for Christian McCaffrey (BYE)
Week 15 vs ZSF:
| Projection Type | sgf | ZSF |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 99.6 | 100.3 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 94.7 | 100.3 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 94.7 | 100.3 |
| Historical PPG | 112.9 | 114.9 |
| MC Blended | 102.0 | 106.1 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (40% win probability) | Spread: -4.2
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Projected Season Totals (Optimized):
- Current PF: 1355
- Expected Additional PF: +273
- Projected Final PF: 1628
#3 ZSF - Power Score: 30.36
Record: 7-5 | PPG: 114.90 | Total PF: 1379 | Top6: 9 | MVP-W: 7.36 | WAX: -0.36
Currently in the playoff picture at #3 with a 7-5 record. Their 114.90 PPG and 7.36 MVP-W put them in solid position. 9 top-6 finishes in 12 weeks shows they can compete with anyone.
Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 9 wins | Projected PF: 1683 | Playoff: 76.2% | #1 Seed: 8.1%
Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):
| Source | Projection | Notes |
|--------|------------|-------|
| ESPN Raw | 98.7 pts | ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters) |
| Optimized | 90.7 pts | ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs |
| Historical PPG | 114.9 pts | Season average through week 12 |
| Monte Carlo Input | 100.4 pts | 60% Optimized + 40% Historical |
Strong odds at 76%, but fantasy football loves chaos. One bad week and this could get interesting.
Roster Health & Availability Report:
Fully healthy starting lineup. Bench depth: James Cook III (RB), Travis Etienne Jr. (RB) available.
BYE Week Players (3):
- De'Von Achane (RB, MIA) - Week 13
- A.J. Brown (RB, PHI) - Week 13
- Eagles D/ST (D/ST, PHI) - Week 13
Monte Carlo Variance Impact: Roster uncertainty increased simulation variance by 10%, widening outcome distributions. This means higher upside but also higher downside risk.
Lineup Optimization Moves:
- Week 13: Bench De'Von Achane (BYE) → Start James Cook III (+16.9 pts)
Total Optimization Gain: +16.9 projected points across 3 remaining weeks.
Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:
Week 13 vs PATS:
| Projection Type | ZSF | PATS |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 104.9 | 107.1 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 64.0 | 83.1 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 80.9 | 93.6 |
| Historical PPG | 114.9 | 108.2 |
| MC Blended | 94.5 | 99.4 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (38% win probability) | Spread: -4.9
Roster Decisions for Week 13:
- BYE: De'Von Achane (RB), A.J. Brown (RB), Eagles D/ST (D/ST)
- ACTION: Start James Cook III (+16.9 pts) for De'Von Achane (BYE)
Week 14 vs 3000:
| Projection Type | ZSF | 3000 |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 90.9 | 18.8 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 90.9 | 18.8 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 90.9 | 18.8 |
| Historical PPG | 114.9 | 91.7 |
| MC Blended | 100.5 | 47.9 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (95% win probability) | Spread: +52.5
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Week 15 vs sgf:
| Projection Type | ZSF | sgf |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 100.3 | 99.6 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 100.3 | 94.7 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 100.3 | 94.7 |
| Historical PPG | 114.9 | 112.9 |
| MC Blended | 106.1 | 102.0 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (60% win probability) | Spread: +4.2
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Projected Season Totals (Optimized):
- Current PF: 1379
- Expected Additional PF: +301
- Projected Final PF: 1680
#4 KIRK - Power Score: 29.18
Record: 7-5 | PPG: 109.36 | Total PF: 1312 | Top6: 8 | MVP-W: 7.18 | WAX: -0.18
Currently in the playoff picture at #4 with a 7-5 record. Their 109.36 PPG and 7.18 MVP-W put them in solid position. 8 top-6 finishes in 12 weeks shows they can compete with anyone.
Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 9 wins | Projected PF: 1600 | Playoff: 60.8% | #1 Seed: 1.2%
Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):
| Source | Projection | Notes |
|--------|------------|-------|
| ESPN Raw | 104.3 pts | ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters) |
| Optimized | 86.2 pts | ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs |
| Historical PPG | 109.4 pts | Season average through week 12 |
| Monte Carlo Input | 95.4 pts | 60% Optimized + 40% Historical |
Right on the knife's edge at 61%. ESPN projects enough points to stay competitive, but so does everyone else.
Roster Health & Availability Report:
Fully healthy starting lineup. Bench depth: RJ Harvey (RB) available.
BYE Week Players (4):
- Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) - Week 13
- Tyler Warren (WR, IND) - Week 13
- Nico Collins (RB, HOU) - Week 13
- Tyler Loop (WR, BAL) - Week 13
Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:
Week 13 vs WOOD:
| Projection Type | KIRK | WOOD |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 106.7 | 80.6 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 52.2 | 70.2 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 52.2 | 87.8 |
| Historical PPG | 109.4 | 88.4 |
| MC Blended | 75.1 | 88.1 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (24% win probability) | Spread: -13.0
Roster Decisions for Week 13:
- BYE: Lamar Jackson (QB), Tyler Warren (WR), Nico Collins (RB), Tyler Loop (WR)
Week 14 vs PATS:
| Projection Type | KIRK | PATS |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 101.7 | 68.3 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 101.7 | 68.3 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 101.7 | 68.3 |
| Historical PPG | 109.4 | 108.2 |
| MC Blended | 104.8 | 84.2 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (91% win probability) | Spread: +20.5
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Week 15 vs 3000:
| Projection Type | KIRK | 3000 |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 104.5 | 88.6 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 104.5 | 88.6 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 104.5 | 88.6 |
| Historical PPG | 109.4 | 91.7 |
| MC Blended | 106.5 | 89.8 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (83% win probability) | Spread: +16.7
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Projected Season Totals (Optimized):
- Current PF: 1312
- Expected Additional PF: +286
- Projected Final PF: 1599
#5 GV - Power Score: 27.82
Record: 7-5 | PPG: 104.92 | Total PF: 1259 | Top6: 7 | MVP-W: 6.82 | WAX: +0.18
On the playoff bubble at #5 with 7-5. Need to step it up - only 35.4% playoff odds right now. Their 104.92 PPG and 7 top-6 finishes show potential.
Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 9 wins | Projected PF: 1547 | Playoff: 35.4% | #1 Seed: 1.1%
Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):
| Source | Projection | Notes |
|--------|------------|-------|
| ESPN Raw | 96.2 pts | ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters) |
| Optimized | 89.9 pts | ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs |
| Historical PPG | 104.9 pts | Season average through week 12 |
| Monte Carlo Input | 95.9 pts | 60% Optimized + 40% Historical |
The 35% playoff odds aren't zero, but they're not exactly inspiring confidence either. Time to pray for upsets. Key injuries to Saquon Barkley (QUESTIONABLE) are devastating - the variance multiplier of 1.13x reflects massive uncertainty.
Roster Health & Availability Report:
Key injuries: Saquon Barkley (RB, QUESTIONABLE). Bench depth: Dak Prescott (QB) available.
BYE Week Players (2):
- Saquon Barkley (RB, PHI) - Week 13
- Michael Pittman Jr. (RB, IND) - Week 13
Injured Starters (1):
- Saquon Barkley (RB, QUESTIONABLE) ⭐: 16.1 pts proj, Questionable - may play with reduced workload
Monte Carlo Variance Impact: Roster uncertainty increased simulation variance by 13%, widening outcome distributions. This means higher upside but also higher downside risk.
Lineup Optimization Moves:
- Week 13: Bench Saquon Barkley (BYE) → Start Omarion Hampton (+11.2 pts)
- Week 13: Bench Michael Pittman Jr. (BYE) → Start Harold Fannin Jr. (+8.0 pts)
Total Optimization Gain: +19.2 projected points across 3 remaining weeks.
Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:
Week 13 vs sgf:
| Projection Type | GV | sgf |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 98.7 | 93.5 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 72.1 | 77.4 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 91.3 | 77.4 |
| Historical PPG | 104.9 | 112.9 |
| MC Blended | 96.8 | 91.6 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (63% win probability) | Spread: +5.2
Roster Decisions for Week 13:
- BYE: Saquon Barkley (RB), Michael Pittman Jr. (RB)
- ACTION: Start Omarion Hampton (+11.2 pts) for Saquon Barkley (BYE)
- ACTION: Start Harold Fannin Jr. (+8.0 pts) for Michael Pittman Jr. (BYE)
Week 14 vs MP:
| Projection Type | GV | MP |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 97.1 | 93.0 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 91.5 | 93.0 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 91.5 | 93.0 |
| Historical PPG | 104.9 | 115.8 |
| MC Blended | 96.9 | 102.1 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (37% win probability) | Spread: -5.2
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Week 15 vs GEMP:
| Projection Type | GV | GEMP |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 92.7 | 79.8 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 86.8 | 72.6 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 86.8 | 72.6 |
| Historical PPG | 104.9 | 97.9 |
| MC Blended | 94.1 | 82.7 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (73% win probability) | Spread: +11.3
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Projected Season Totals (Optimized):
- Current PF: 1259
- Expected Additional PF: +288
- Projected Final PF: 1547
#6 POO - Power Score: 26.00
Record: 7-5 | PPG: 105.56 | Total PF: 1267 | Top6: 6 | MVP-W: 6.00 | WAX: +1.00
On the playoff bubble at #6 with 7-5. Still in decent shape with 51.9% playoff odds. Their 105.56 PPG and 6 top-6 finishes show potential. They've benefited from +1.00 WAX - riding some good matchups.
Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 9 wins | Projected PF: 1557 | Playoff: 51.9% | #1 Seed: 1.9%
Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):
| Source | Projection | Notes |
|--------|------------|-------|
| ESPN Raw | 104.0 pts | ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters) |
| Optimized | 90.8 pts | ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs |
| Historical PPG | 105.6 pts | Season average through week 12 |
| Monte Carlo Input | 96.7 pts | 60% Optimized + 40% Historical |
Right on the knife's edge at 52%. ESPN projects enough points to stay competitive, but so does everyone else.
Roster Health & Availability Report:
Fully healthy starting lineup.
BYE Week Players (3):
- Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) - Week 13
- Derrick Henry (RB, BAL) - Week 13
- Chase McLaughlin (WR, TB) - Week 14
Lineup Optimization Moves:
- Week 13: Bench Derrick Henry (BYE) → Start DK Metcalf (+11.3 pts)
Total Optimization Gain: +11.3 projected points across 3 remaining weeks.
Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:
Week 13 vs 3000:
| Projection Type | POO | 3000 |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 109.5 | 84.7 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 66.7 | 33.1 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 78.0 | 45.1 |
| Historical PPG | 105.6 | 91.7 |
| MC Blended | 89.0 | 63.8 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (95% win probability) | Spread: +25.3
Roster Decisions for Week 13:
- BYE: Jalen Hurts (QB), Derrick Henry (RB)
- ACTION: Start DK Metcalf (+11.3 pts) for Derrick Henry (BYE)
Week 14 vs sgf:
| Projection Type | POO | sgf |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 101.3 | 50.7 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 93.1 | 45.5 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 93.1 | 56.7 |
| Historical PPG | 105.6 | 112.9 |
| MC Blended | 98.1 | 79.2 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (88% win probability) | Spread: +19.0
Roster Decisions for Week 14:
- BYE: Chase McLaughlin (WR)
Week 15 vs MP:
| Projection Type | POO | MP |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 101.2 | 101.8 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 101.2 | 101.8 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 101.2 | 101.8 |
| Historical PPG | 105.6 | 115.8 |
| MC Blended | 103.0 | 107.4 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (39% win probability) | Spread: -4.4
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Projected Season Totals (Optimized):
- Current PF: 1267
- Expected Additional PF: +290
- Projected Final PF: 1557
#7 PATS - Power Score: 25.18
Record: 5-7 | PPG: 108.22 | Total PF: 1299 | Top6: 8 | MVP-W: 7.18 | WAX: -2.18
Sitting at #7 with a 5-7 record - outside looking in. At just 1.8% playoff odds, it would take a miracle. Their 108.22 PPG suggests they have some scoring punch. The -2.18 WAX means they're better than their record - just unlucky.
Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 7 wins | Projected PF: 1587 | Playoff: 1.8% | #1 Seed: 0.0%
Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):
| Source | Projection | Notes |
|--------|------------|-------|
| ESPN Raw | 94.4 pts | ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters) |
| Optimized | 86.6 pts | ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs |
| Historical PPG | 108.2 pts | Season average through week 12 |
| Monte Carlo Input | 95.3 pts | 60% Optimized + 40% Historical |
The computer ran 10,000 simulations and found essentially no path to the playoffs. Time to play spoiler. Key injuries to Jaxson Dart (QUESTIONABLE) are devastating - the variance multiplier of 1.09x reflects massive uncertainty.
Roster Health & Availability Report:
Key injuries: Jaxson Dart (QB, QUESTIONABLE).
BYE Week Players (1):
- TreVeyon Henderson (RB, NE) - Week 13
Injured Starters (1):
- Jaxson Dart (QB, QUESTIONABLE) ⭐: 18.9 pts proj, Questionable - may play with reduced workload
Monte Carlo Variance Impact: Roster uncertainty increased simulation variance by 9%, widening outcome distributions. This means higher upside but also higher downside risk.
Lineup Optimization Moves:
- Week 13: Bench TreVeyon Henderson (BYE) → Start D'Andre Swift (+10.4 pts)
Total Optimization Gain: +10.4 projected points across 3 remaining weeks.
Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:
Week 13 vs ZSF:
| Projection Type | PATS | ZSF |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 107.1 | 104.9 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 83.1 | 64.0 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 93.6 | 80.9 |
| Historical PPG | 108.2 | 114.9 |
| MC Blended | 99.4 | 94.5 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (62% win probability) | Spread: +4.9
Roster Decisions for Week 13:
- BYE: TreVeyon Henderson (RB)
- ACTION: Start D'Andre Swift (+10.4 pts) for TreVeyon Henderson (BYE)
Week 14 vs KIRK:
| Projection Type | PATS | KIRK |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 68.3 | 101.7 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 68.3 | 101.7 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 68.3 | 101.7 |
| Historical PPG | 108.2 | 109.4 |
| MC Blended | 84.2 | 104.8 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (9% win probability) | Spread: -20.5
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Week 15 vs KESS:
| Projection Type | PATS | KESS |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 107.8 | 83.0 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 98.1 | 78.4 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 98.1 | 78.4 |
| Historical PPG | 108.2 | 96.6 |
| MC Blended | 102.2 | 85.7 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (83% win probability) | Spread: +16.5
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Projected Season Totals (Optimized):
- Current PF: 1299
- Expected Additional PF: +286
- Projected Final PF: 1585
#8 GEMP - Power Score: 19.45
Record: 6-6 | PPG: 97.92 | Total PF: 1175 | Top6: 3 | MVP-W: 4.45 | WAX: +1.55
Sitting at #8 with a 6-6 record - outside looking in. At just 1.3% playoff odds, it would take a miracle. Their 97.92 PPG suggests they have some scoring punch. That +1.55 WAX is actually concerning - they've been lucky and still can't crack the top 6.
Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 7 wins | Projected PF: 1435 | Playoff: 1.3% | #1 Seed: 0.0%
Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):
| Source | Projection | Notes |
|--------|------------|-------|
| ESPN Raw | 83.6 pts | ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters) |
| Optimized | 78.3 pts | ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs |
| Historical PPG | 97.9 pts | Season average through week 12 |
| Monte Carlo Input | 86.1 pts | 60% Optimized + 40% Historical |
The computer ran 10,000 simulations and found essentially no path to the playoffs. Time to play spoiler. 1 starter(s) dealing with injuries adds some variance (1.20x) to these projections.
Roster Health & Availability Report:
1 minor injury(s) in lineup. Bench depth: Ashton Jeanty (RB), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) available.
BYE Week Players (1):
- Daniel Jones (QB, IND) - Week 13
Injured Starters (1):
- Daniel Jones (QB, QUESTIONABLE): 17.3 pts proj, Questionable - may play with reduced workload
Monte Carlo Variance Impact: Roster uncertainty increased simulation variance by 20%, widening outcome distributions. This means higher upside but also higher downside risk.
Lineup Optimization Moves:
- Week 13: Bench Daniel Jones (BYE) → Start Brock Purdy (+16.0 pts)
Total Optimization Gain: +16.0 projected points across 3 remaining weeks.
Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:
Week 13 vs MP:
| Projection Type | GEMP | MP |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 86.7 | 103.0 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 69.4 | 78.7 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 85.4 | 87.7 |
| Historical PPG | 97.9 | 115.8 |
| MC Blended | 90.4 | 98.9 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (29% win probability) | Spread: -8.6
Roster Decisions for Week 13:
- BYE: Daniel Jones (QB)
- ACTION: Start Brock Purdy (+16.0 pts) for Daniel Jones (BYE)
Week 14 vs ROUX:
| Projection Type | GEMP | ROUX |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 84.3 | 86.1 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 76.8 | 75.8 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 76.8 | 84.6 |
| Historical PPG | 97.9 | 95.6 |
| MC Blended | 85.3 | 89.0 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (41% win probability) | Spread: -3.7
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Week 15 vs GV:
| Projection Type | GEMP | GV |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 79.8 | 92.7 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 72.6 | 86.8 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 72.6 | 86.8 |
| Historical PPG | 97.9 | 104.9 |
| MC Blended | 82.7 | 94.1 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (27% win probability) | Spread: -11.3
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Projected Season Totals (Optimized):
- Current PF: 1175
- Expected Additional PF: +258
- Projected Final PF: 1433
#9 ROUX - Power Score: 17.64
Record: 4-8 | PPG: 95.58 | Total PF: 1147 | Top6: 5 | MVP-W: 4.64 | WAX: -0.64
At #9 with 4-8, the season hasn't gone as planned. Averaging 95.58 PPG with only 5 top-6 finishes in 12 weeks.
Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 6 wins | Projected PF: 1415 | Playoff: 0.0% | #1 Seed: 0.0%
Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):
| Source | Projection | Notes |
|--------|------------|-------|
| ESPN Raw | 88.6 pts | ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters) |
| Optimized | 84.8 pts | ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs |
| Historical PPG | 95.6 pts | Season average through week 12 |
| Monte Carlo Input | 89.1 pts | 60% Optimized + 40% Historical |
The computer ran 10,000 simulations and found essentially no path to the playoffs. Time to play spoiler. Injuries to Kenneth Walker III (QUESTIONABLE) add unpredictability to the projections.
Roster Health & Availability Report:
Key injuries: Kenneth Walker III (RB, QUESTIONABLE).
BYE Week Players (1):
- Rachaad White (RB, TB) - Week 14
Injured Starters (1):
- Kenneth Walker III (RB, QUESTIONABLE) ⭐: 13.1 pts proj, Questionable - may play with reduced workload
Monte Carlo Variance Impact: Roster uncertainty increased simulation variance by 7%, widening outcome distributions. This means higher upside but also higher downside risk.
Lineup Optimization Moves:
- Week 14: Bench Rachaad White (BYE) → Start Alec Pierce (+8.8 pts)
Total Optimization Gain: +8.8 projected points across 3 remaining weeks.
Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:
Week 13 vs KESS:
| Projection Type | ROUX | KESS |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 87.3 | 90.4 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 82.0 | 67.7 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 82.0 | 67.7 |
| Historical PPG | 95.6 | 96.6 |
| MC Blended | 87.5 | 79.3 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (70% win probability) | Spread: +8.2
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Week 14 vs GEMP:
| Projection Type | ROUX | GEMP |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 86.1 | 84.3 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 75.8 | 76.8 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 84.6 | 76.8 |
| Historical PPG | 95.6 | 97.9 |
| MC Blended | 89.0 | 85.3 |
Expected Outcome: Toss-up (59% win probability) | Spread: +3.7
Roster Decisions for Week 14:
- BYE: Rachaad White (RB)
- ACTION: Start Alec Pierce (+8.8 pts) for Rachaad White (BYE)
Week 15 vs WOOD:
| Projection Type | ROUX | WOOD |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 92.6 | 82.3 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 87.8 | 82.3 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 87.8 | 82.3 |
| Historical PPG | 95.6 | 88.4 |
| MC Blended | 90.9 | 84.8 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (65% win probability) | Spread: +6.1
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Projected Season Totals (Optimized):
- Current PF: 1147
- Expected Additional PF: +267
- Projected Final PF: 1414
#10 KESS - Power Score: 17.64
Record: 5-7 | PPG: 96.57 | Total PF: 1159 | Top6: 3 | MVP-W: 4.64 | WAX: +0.36
At #10 with 5-7, the season hasn't gone as planned. Averaging 96.57 PPG with only 3 top-6 finishes in 12 weeks.
Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 6 wins | Projected PF: 1411 | Playoff: 0.0% | #1 Seed: 0.0%
Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):
| Source | Projection | Notes |
|--------|------------|-------|
| ESPN Raw | 84.2 pts | ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters) |
| Optimized | 75.9 pts | ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs |
| Historical PPG | 96.6 pts | Season average through week 12 |
| Monte Carlo Input | 84.2 pts | 60% Optimized + 40% Historical |
The computer ran 10,000 simulations and found essentially no path to the playoffs. Time to play spoiler. Injuries to DeVonta Smith (QUESTIONABLE) add unpredictability to the projections. Watch for potential boost if Joe Mixon return(s) - could shift the distribution upward.
Roster Health & Availability Report:
Key injuries: DeVonta Smith (RB, QUESTIONABLE). Watch for return: Joe Mixon.
BYE Week Players (3):
- DeVonta Smith (RB, PHI) - Week 13
- Mark Andrews (WR, BAL) - Week 13
- Sean Tucker (RB, TB) - Week 14
Injured Starters (1):
- DeVonta Smith (RB, QUESTIONABLE) ⭐: 12.5 pts proj, Questionable - may play with reduced workload
Potential Returns:
- Joe Mixon (RB): OUT - may return soon
Monte Carlo Variance Impact: Roster uncertainty increased simulation variance by 7%, widening outcome distributions. This means higher upside but also higher downside risk.
Lineup Optimization Moves:
- Week 14: Bench Sean Tucker (BYE) → Start Alvin Kamara (+10.4 pts)
Total Optimization Gain: +10.3 projected points across 3 remaining weeks.
Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:
Week 13 vs ROUX:
| Projection Type | KESS | ROUX |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 90.4 | 87.3 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 67.7 | 82.0 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 67.7 | 82.0 |
| Historical PPG | 96.6 | 95.6 |
| MC Blended | 79.3 | 87.5 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (30% win probability) | Spread: -8.2
Roster Decisions for Week 13:
- BYE: DeVonta Smith (RB), Mark Andrews (WR)
Week 14 vs WOOD:
| Projection Type | KESS | WOOD |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 79.3 | 72.8 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 71.3 | 61.2 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 81.7 | 65.6 |
| Historical PPG | 96.6 | 88.4 |
| MC Blended | 87.6 | 74.7 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (76% win probability) | Spread: +12.9
Roster Decisions for Week 14:
- BYE: Sean Tucker (RB)
- ACTION: Start Alvin Kamara (+10.4 pts) for Sean Tucker (BYE)
Week 15 vs PATS:
| Projection Type | KESS | PATS |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 83.0 | 107.8 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 78.4 | 98.1 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 78.4 | 98.1 |
| Historical PPG | 96.6 | 108.2 |
| MC Blended | 85.7 | 102.2 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (17% win probability) | Spread: -16.5
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Projected Season Totals (Optimized):
- Current PF: 1159
- Expected Additional PF: +253
- Projected Final PF: 1411
#11 3000 - Power Score: 15.18
Record: 4-8 | PPG: 91.66 | Total PF: 1100 | Top6: 3 | MVP-W: 4.18 | WAX: -0.18
Bringing up the rear at #11 with a 4-8 record. Their 91.66 PPG ranks near the bottom of the league. Only 3 top-6 finishes in 12 weeks tells the story.
Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 4 wins | Projected PF: 1309 | Playoff: 0.0% | #1 Seed: 0.0%
Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):
| Source | Projection | Notes |
|--------|------------|-------|
| ESPN Raw | 64.0 pts | ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters) |
| Optimized | 50.8 pts | ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs |
| Historical PPG | 91.7 pts | Season average through week 12 |
| Monte Carlo Input | 67.2 pts | 60% Optimized + 40% Historical |
The computer ran 10,000 simulations and found essentially no path to the playoffs. Time to play spoiler. Only 0.5 more projected wins suggests a rough finish ahead.
Roster Health & Availability Report:
Fully healthy starting lineup. Bench depth: Kenneth Gainwell (RB) available.
BYE Week Players (5):
- Woody Marks (RB, HOU) - Week 13
- Andy Borregales (WR, NE) - Week 13
- Hunter Henry (WR, NE) - Week 13
- Drake Maye (QB, NE) - Week 13
Lineup Optimization Moves:
- Week 13: Bench Woody Marks (BYE) → Start Kenneth Gainwell (+12.1 pts)
Total Optimization Gain: +12.1 projected points across 3 remaining weeks.
Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:
Week 13 vs POO:
| Projection Type | 3000 | POO |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 84.7 | 109.5 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 33.1 | 66.7 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 45.1 | 78.0 |
| Historical PPG | 91.7 | 105.6 |
| MC Blended | 63.8 | 89.0 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (5% win probability) | Spread: -25.3
Roster Decisions for Week 13:
- BYE: Woody Marks (RB), Andy Borregales (WR), Hunter Henry (WR), Drake Maye (QB)
- ACTION: Start Kenneth Gainwell (+12.1 pts) for Woody Marks (BYE)
Week 14 vs ZSF:
| Projection Type | 3000 | ZSF |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 18.8 | 90.9 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 18.8 | 90.9 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 18.8 | 90.9 |
| Historical PPG | 91.7 | 114.9 |
| MC Blended | 47.9 | 100.5 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (5% win probability) | Spread: -52.5
Roster Decisions for Week 14:
- BYE: 49ers D/ST (D/ST)
Week 15 vs KIRK:
| Projection Type | 3000 | KIRK |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 88.6 | 104.5 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 88.6 | 104.5 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 88.6 | 104.5 |
| Historical PPG | 91.7 | 109.4 |
| MC Blended | 89.8 | 106.5 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (17% win probability) | Spread: -16.7
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Projected Season Totals (Optimized):
- Current PF: 1100
- Expected Additional PF: +202
- Projected Final PF: 1301
#12 WOOD - Power Score: 12.36
Record: 3-9 | PPG: 88.40 | Total PF: 1061 | Top6: 3 | MVP-W: 3.36 | WAX: -0.36
Bringing up the rear at #12 with a 3-9 record. Their 88.40 PPG ranks near the bottom of the league. Only 3 top-6 finishes in 12 weeks tells the story.
Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 4 wins | Projected PF: 1310 | Playoff: 0.0% | #1 Seed: 0.0%
Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):
| Source | Projection | Notes |
|--------|------------|-------|
| ESPN Raw | 78.6 pts | ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters) |
| Optimized | 78.6 pts | ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs |
| Historical PPG | 88.4 pts | Season average through week 12 |
| Monte Carlo Input | 82.5 pts | 60% Optimized + 40% Historical |
The computer ran 10,000 simulations and found essentially no path to the playoffs. Time to play spoiler.
Roster Health & Availability Report:
Fully healthy starting lineup. Bench depth: Josh Jacobs (RB), Bo Nix (QB) available.
BYE Week Players (3):
- Nick Chubb (RB, HOU) - Week 13
- Patriots D/ST (D/ST, NE) - Week 13
- Emeka Egbuka (RB, TB) - Week 14
Monte Carlo Variance Impact: Roster uncertainty increased simulation variance by 10%, widening outcome distributions. This means higher upside but also higher downside risk.
Lineup Optimization Moves:
- Week 13: Bench Nick Chubb (BYE) → Start Josh Jacobs (+17.6 pts)
- Week 14: Bench Emeka Egbuka (BYE) → Start David Njoku (+4.4 pts)
Total Optimization Gain: +22.0 projected points across 3 remaining weeks.
Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:
Week 13 vs KIRK:
| Projection Type | WOOD | KIRK |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 80.6 | 106.7 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 70.2 | 52.2 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 87.8 | 52.2 |
| Historical PPG | 88.4 | 109.4 |
| MC Blended | 88.1 | 75.1 |
Expected Outcome: Favored (76% win probability) | Spread: +13.0
Roster Decisions for Week 13:
- BYE: Nick Chubb (RB), Patriots D/ST (D/ST)
- ACTION: Start Josh Jacobs (+17.6 pts) for Nick Chubb (BYE)
Week 14 vs KESS:
| Projection Type | WOOD | KESS |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 72.8 | 79.3 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 61.2 | 71.3 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 65.6 | 81.7 |
| Historical PPG | 88.4 | 96.6 |
| MC Blended | 74.7 | 87.6 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (24% win probability) | Spread: -12.9
Roster Decisions for Week 14:
- BYE: Emeka Egbuka (RB)
- ACTION: Start David Njoku (+4.4 pts) for Emeka Egbuka (BYE)
Week 15 vs ROUX:
| Projection Type | WOOD | ROUX |
|-----------------|--------|----------|
| ESPN Raw | 82.3 | 92.6 |
| Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) | 82.3 | 87.8 |
| Optimized (+Bench) | 82.3 | 87.8 |
| Historical PPG | 88.4 | 95.6 |
| MC Blended | 84.8 | 90.9 |
Expected Outcome: Underdog (35% win probability) | Spread: -6.1
Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.
Projected Season Totals (Optimized):
- Current PF: 1061
- Expected Additional PF: +248
- Projected Final PF: 1308
Predicted Final Standings
Based on Monte Carlo simulation with ESPN projections and historical performance:
| Rank | Team | Projected Wins | Projected PF | Current Record | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MP | 10.7 | 1699 | 9-3 | 99.2% |
| 2 | ZSF | 8.9 | 1683 | 7-5 | 76.2% |
| 3 | sgf | 9.2 | 1630 | 8-4 | 73.5% |
| 4 | KIRK | 8.8 | 1600 | 7-5 | 60.8% |
| 5 | POO | 9.0 | 1557 | 7-5 | 51.9% |
| 6 | GV | 8.7 | 1547 | 7-5 | 35.4% |
| 7 | GEMP | 7.2 | 1435 | 6-6 | 1.3% |
| 8 | PATS | 6.5 | 1587 | 5-7 | 1.8% |
| 9 | KESS | 6.4 | 1411 | 5-7 | 0.0% |
| 10 | ROUX | 5.8 | 1415 | 4-8 | 0.0% |
| 11 | WOOD | 4.4 | 1310 | 3-9 | 0.0% |
| 12 | 3000 | 4.5 | 1309 | 4-8 | 0.0% |
Projected Playoff Matchups
If playoffs started today (top 4 make it, seeded by record then Points For):
Semifinal 1: #1 MP (Proj. PF: 1699) vs #4 KIRK (Proj. PF: 1600)
Semifinal 2: #2 ZSF (Proj. PF: 1683) vs #3 sgf (Proj. PF: 1630)
Data Sources & Methodology
| Component | Source | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly Projections | ESPN Fantasy API | 60% |
| Historical Performance | Season-to-date PPG | 40% |
| Scoring Variance | Season standard deviation | Adjusted for injuries |
| Roster Health | ESPN Injury Designations | Increases variance |
| Tiebreaker | Total Points For | League Setting |
Analysis generated by ESPN Fantasy Football Scraper using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. May your players stay healthy and your opponents' stars have bye weeks.